HOT WIRE: "Black Swan Events" Making Winners & Losers in Manufacturing

05/07/2020 IEWC

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"Black Swan Events" Making Winners & Losers in Manufacturing

Taken together, leading indicator movements and black swan events suggest annual US total manufacturing production will likely decline through at least the remainder of this year. Staving off the worst effects of industrial sector business cycle decline this year and into early next year will require tough decisions. Manufacturers will need to be creative to maintain their ability to meet demand later in 2021 and into 2022 as the US industrial sector recovers and rises.

US total manufacturing production posted the largest proportional February-to-March decline on record. While annual manufacturing had been declining mildly since a June 2019 peak, the recent back-to-back "black swan" events (COVID-19 pandemic and extreme oil price drop) exacerbated the pace of decline in the last month. As March data trickles in, the impact of shutdowns is becoming clearer across a wide swath of manufacturing markets.... [read more]

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  • Readers' Forum
  • A Closer Look: The US Economy
  • ...and more!

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