HOT WIRE: Manufacturing Outlook for 2019
Manufacturing Outlook for 2019
2018 has been a strong year for manufacturing. In the 12 months through November, US total manufacturing production was up 2.6% year-over-year. Activity is rising near its fastest rate in more than five years. However, leading indicators signal that we are likely near the top of the business cycle.
The US Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate, which typically leads manufacturing production by about two quarters, indicates that production will likely grow at an accelerating pace into early 2019, before the pace of increase slows. Activity will generally decline through the majority of 2019.
The automotive sector has been weak in recent years. North America light vehicle production recovered mildly in 2018, but recession will return in 2019. Although the heavy-duty truck sector outperformed the light vehicle sector in 2018, it will also contract in 2019. Avoid over-investing in.... [read more]
Also in this Issue
- Readers' Forum
- A Year-end Look at the Housing Market
- Western Europe Industrial Production
- ...and more!